Episode 307: What's in the BOX?

Very Bad Wizards

• Episode: Episode 307: What's in the BOX?
• Website: Very Bad Wizards
• Feed URL: https://feeds.libsyn.com/474285/rss
• Duration: 01:16:37
• Published: 2025-04-22 20:33

David and Tamler talk about two famous puzzles that for different reasons have bedeviled the rationalist community – The Monty Hall Problem and Newcomb’s “paradox.” Why is it so hard for people to see that a 66% chance of winning a car is better than a 33% chance? Why do famous mathematicians struggle with this problem? And David and Tamler split on the Newcomb case – can you guess which one of us is the one boxer?

Plus since we’re basically a TV recap podcast now, some thoughts on White Lotus Season 3. 

The White Lotus [imdb.com]

Monty Hall Problem [wikipedia.org]

Numberphile on the Monty Hall Problem [youtube.com]

Newcomb's "Paradox" [wikipedia.org]

Nozick, R. (1969). Newcomb’s problem and two principles of choice. In Essays in honor of carl g. hempel: A tribute on the occasion of his sixty-fifth birthday (pp. 114-146). Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands.