Prediction Markets

Data Skeptic

In the final stretch leading up the U.K's referendum on the EU last year, traditional opinion polls suggested an extremely close race, fluctuating between staying in the EU and leaving up until the votes were cast. However, the political prediction (betting) markets told a different story, showing a wide lead on the odds of remaining. Two days before the referendum, a large number of opinion polls showed 'Leave' ahead, while the British prediction market Betfair was implying odds of 75 percent for 'Remain' and 25 percent for 'Lea

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