Sports metaphors and probability: Thoughts from a non-sports enthusiast

Data Skeptic

On the eve of Election Day 2016, FiveThirtyEight's final "polls-only" forecast gave Donald Trump a 29 percent chance of winning the presidency. The NYT Upshot's model gave him a 15 percent chance. According to these two probabilities, a Hillary Clinton victory was likely (a 71 percent and 85 percent chance, respectively), though not a gi

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